UK Scraps 'One In, One Out' Channel Migrant Return Deal With France

The British government has confirmed that its pilot agreement with France, commonly referred to as the "one in, one out" scheme, has been discontinued. Under the arrangement, the UK had been permitted to send back some migrants who arrived via small boats across the English Channel, while simultaneously accepting an equivalent number of individuals from France who were deemed to have legitimate grounds for entering Britain. The programme, which had been in operation for just over a year, has now ceased processing new cases, according to a Home Office spokesperson.

The scheme was initially introduced as an experimental measure aimed at deterring dangerous Channel crossings and managing the flow of asylum seekers between the two nations. However, its impact proved limited. Since its inception, only around 1,500 people were removed to France under the agreement. The BBC has learned that while the government would have preferred to keep the scheme running, it ultimately concluded that the programme had not achieved the scale required to justify its continuation.

A Home Office spokesperson stated that the "lessons learned" from the pilot would be applied to "accelerate efforts" to return small boat migrants who have no legal right to remain in the UK. The spokesperson added that although the pilot is no longer processing new cases, return flights will continue in the coming weeks to remove small boat migrants swiftly. The government also emphasised that it remains committed to collaborating with France on tackling small boat crossings, noting that "real progress" has been made, with arrival numbers "significantly down on last year."

From the French side, the Interior Ministry confirmed to the BBC that discussions are ongoing regarding the terms of the country's exit from the agreement. This suggests that the termination is a bilateral process, with both nations working out the practical details of winding down the arrangement. The French government has not publicly expressed opposition to the decision, but the phrasing indicates a mutual acknowledgment that the pilot did not deliver as intended.

The "one in, one out" scheme faced operational difficulties from the outset. Scaling up the removal of large numbers of individuals into the French system on a weekly basis proved more challenging than anticipated. Earlier this month, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood acknowledged these hurdles before Parliament, stating that the scheme had "not been without its challenges" and that the numbers involved remained "relatively small." She explained that the operational complexity of transferring significant volumes of people into France's asylum infrastructure was a key obstacle.

Despite its shortcomings, the scheme may have had some deterrent effect. Mahmood noted that the United Nations and other agencies had reported that some migrants were choosing not to board small boats because they believed they might be accepted under the "one in, one out" arrangement. This suggests that the mere existence of the programme, even on a limited scale, influenced some individuals' decisions. However, the overall numbers of Channel crossings remain substantial, and the government faces ongoing pressure to address the issue comprehensively.

Small boat crossings have become the most common method for people to be detected entering the UK illegally since 2020. Between 1 January and 27 September 2026, a total of 19,135 people crossed the English Channel by small boat from France. This represents a 42% decrease compared to the same period in 2025, when 32,188 people made the crossing. The government points to this decline as evidence of progress, though the figures remain high in historical terms.

Nearly all individuals who arrive by small boat claim asylum. Under international law, they are permitted to remain in the country while their applications are assessed. Small boat arrivals accounted for 40% of asylum applications between July 2025 and June 2026. The average number of people per boat has also risen sharply, with vessels carrying an average of 67 people between 28 September 2025 and 27 September 2026, more than double the figure from 2021. Experts warn that overcrowding makes these crossings increasingly perilous. According to the United Nations, at least 84 people died while attempting to cross the Channel in 2024.

The demographic profile of those arriving via small boats is diverse. Between July 2025 and June 2026, Eritreans accounted for 18% of all arrivals. Other significant nationalities included Sudanese, Afghans, Somalis, and Iranians. In the period from January to December 2025, at least 2,335 individuals who arrived by small boat were identified as potential victims of human trafficking or modern slavery, according to Home Office data. These figures underscore the complex humanitarian and security dimensions of the issue.

Beyond small boats, other methods of unauthorised entry persist. Between July 2025 and June 2026, another 4,712 people were detected entering the UK without permission through means such as hiding in vehicles, travelling on ferries, or arriving via airports. This represented a 17% decrease from the previous year. Additionally, some individuals arrive legally on work or study visas and then overstay their permitted time. The total number of people living in the UK illegally after entering legally is not known, but it is believed to be substantial.

The discontinuation of the "one in, one out" scheme raises questions about the future of UK-France cooperation on migration. Both governments have emphasised their continued commitment to addressing small boat crossings, but the end of this pilot leaves a gap in the bilateral strategy. The UK government has pledged to "smash the gangs" responsible for organising these crossings, a promise that Home Secretary Mahmood and her colleagues will need to deliver on as public scrutiny intensifies. The coming months will reveal whether alternative measures can achieve the deterrence and returns that the pilot failed to deliver at scale.

The financial cost of the scheme has also been a point of contention. The Home Secretary previously revealed that the "one in, one out" arrangement cost £56,000 per person returned to France. This high per-person expense likely contributed to the government's decision to abandon the pilot, as it struggled to demonstrate value for money. With only 1,500 removals over a year, the total outlay would have been significant, and critics may argue that the funds could have been better spent on other border enforcement or asylum processing measures.

As the UK navigates its post-Brexit border policies, the scrapping of this pilot highlights the difficulties of crafting effective bilateral agreements on migration. The challenge of balancing humanitarian obligations with border control remains acute. The government's next steps will be closely watched by stakeholders on both sides of the Channel, including local communities, human rights organisations, and the migrants themselves, whose lives are directly affected by these policy decisions.

In summary, the "one in, one out" scheme has been formally scrapped after a year of limited success. While the UK and France continue to discuss the terms of the exit, the focus now shifts to alternative strategies for managing small boat crossings. The government's stated aim is to accelerate returns and build on the lessons learned, but the path forward remains fraught with logistical, legal, and ethical complexities. The decline in crossings compared to last year offers some encouragement, yet the underlying drivers of migration persist, demanding sustained and innovative responses from both nations.